Conor O'Neill

It's a long season. That's what baseball fans must remember when looking at the first month of the season. Teams that have started hot cannot afford to get ahead of themselves (Rays, 14-5. Padres, 11-8). On the other side, teams that have struggled must avoid thinking that their seasons are over in April (Orioles, 3-16. Rangers, 8-11).

Then again, Bud Selig would have us believe that every game counts. And the used car salesman is right, in some respect. Last season, the AL Central was decided in a tie-breaker at the end of the season. If the Twins or the Tigers had dropped one more game in April, then that one-game playoff wouldn't have happened.

So here is my take on the teams that have exceeded expectations, and on teams that have failed to reach expectations in the first 20 games of the season.

Tampa Bay Rays. 14-5, 1st place in AL East.

This team is for real as a contender, and look for them to make a deep run into the playoffs. Two seasons removed from a magical, unexpected run to the World Series, this team has a lot of players who were key members of that team. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, both free agents at the end of the year, team with Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton to form a dangerous lineup. Matt Garza is a legitimate staff ace, and David Price is living up to the No. 1 overall draft pick hype.

San Diego Padres. 11-8, Tied 1st place in NL West.

How this team managed to win eight games in a row is beyond me. Chase Headley is a nice story, hitting .351 with six stolen bases. But c'mon. Any team that starts Everth Cabrera, David Eckstein, Will Venable and Kyle Blanks cannot be expected to put up enough runs to be a contender. And the fact that this team has a combined ERA of 3.26, well, you can bet that number will be significantly higher by the end of the next month.

Baltimore Orioles. 3-16, last place in AL East.

No, they aren't this bad. And no, that is not a reflection of any bias that I have (I'm from Baltimore). This is a case of a team that was shell-shocked by a couple of heart-breaking defeats early in the season, and hasn't mentally recovered. While the team is 13 games under .500, the O's have only been outscored by 36 runs this season. This team won't contend, but they also have much more talent than they have shown thus far.

Boston Red Sox. 9-11, fourth place in AL East.

Go ahead and hit the 'We might have a problem here' button for this team. This is a team that couldn't score enough runs last season, and did next to nothing to address that problem in the offseason. Their vaunted pitching staff? Josh Beckett (7.22 ERA), Jon Lester (6.23), John Lackey (5.09) and Tim Wakefield (5.40) have struggled, to say the least. David Ortiz is off to another cold start, hitting a poultry .160. J.D. Drew is also under the Mendoza Line, with a .182 average.

Atlanta Braves. 8-11, last place in NL East.

While everybody has been blinded by the glow of Jason Heyward, it seems to be forgotten that this Braves team is struggling. Heyward is hitting .234, and he isn't the only everyday player having difficulties at the dish. Chipper Jones (.255), Brian McCann (.255), Melky Cabrera (.175), Yunel Escobar (.191) and Troy Glaus (.210) aren't really getting it done offensively. And their pitching? Maybe they'd like to have Javier Vazquez back. Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens have plus 5.00 ERA's, and young stud Tommy Hanson has had just one quality start in four opportunities.

Don't panic yet. Or do. Your choice, but just keep in mind that championships are not won in April.