Michael Hermanson

In Week 3, we got some more information to compare how good certain teams actually are. Atlanta’s OT loss to the Steelers looks a lot better now after Pittsburgh has dominated its past two games. The Giants’ defeat of Carolina doesn’t look that impressive anymore after Carolina’s 0-3 start. With those types of comparisons in mind, here are my Week 4 picks. Home Team in Caps.

FALCONS (-6.5) over 49ers

Atlanta went to overtime again this week, except this time they came out victorious. Despite the fact that Garret Hartley could’ve ended the game on a 29-yard field goal, the Falcons still won the game. Subsequently, the Saints announced that Hartley will sit Sunday and 46-year-old John Carney will start. [Every time an NFL kicker misses a short field goal like Hartley did last week (and Sebastian Janikowski), it makes me wonder how there aren’t 32 people in the world that can nail anything within 40 yards on demand. Last year, only Ryan Lindell, Sebastian Janikowski, Ryan Succop, and Robbie Gould were perfect from inside of 40 yards (at least 15 attempts). It’s amazing more people don’t devote themselves to being kickers from an early age.] However, the Falcons look like they could win the division this year with Matt Ryan finding Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez with great consistency. The 49ers looked like locks to win the awful NFC West, but at 0-3 they need a win desperately. Unless San Fran keeps insisting they’re beating themselves, but that’s part of the game: Good teams don’t beat themselves.

Bengals (-3) over BROWNS

After reluctantly being forced to watch the Bengals play for 3 and a half hours on Sunday (thanks North Carolina regional CBS), I can say that Carson Palmer is one of the worst QB’s in the league with a locked up starting job. Only Derek Anderson is worse. I think because he was on the cover of NCAA Football ’04, and he used to be good that we automatically assume he’s good. That being said, I still think they have a top 5 defense in the league, and I think they can beat the Browns.

Jets (-5.5) over BILLS

I think the Bills’ strong performance against the Pats is more because the Pats suck than the Bills are good. Sanchez looked as good as Mark Sanchez can look against Miami Sunday night, and he might be evolving into a more reliable quarterback. Sanchez converted 5 of 8 third down attempts, better than his 34% average on 3rd down last year. If he can keep that up, the Jets could contend for the AFC Title. I don’t think Ryan Fitzpatrick (who? He’s the Bills’ starter) will be able to be even half as productive against the Jets as he was against the Patriots. They picked up former Ravens DE Trevor Pryce, who had 6.5 sacks last year, which could help offset the loss of Darrelle Revis, who won’t play Sunday.

RAMS (+1.5) over Seahawks

The Seahawks are one of the few teams in the NFL who have a true home-field advantage. Qwest Field is known for reaching unprecedented noise levels, and is widely considered the most difficult NFL stadium to play in. With both their early season wins coming at home, I find it difficult to conclude whether the Seahawks are actually good, or that they just can win at home. Denver trounced them in their one road game, so I want to see them win on the road before I pick them on the road. Sam Bradford looked great against a Washington defense that held Dallas to 7 points earlier this year, and Steven Jackson is always a threat.

TITANS (-6) over Broncos

At first, it seemed like Vince Young’s game against Pittsburgh was proof that the Titans weren’t any good, and they had no reliability at QB. However, after watching the Steelers destroy Tampa Bay, and hold Atlanta to 9 points, I think we can say the Steelers are just phenomenal defensively. If this game were in Denver, I think the Broncos would have a chance, but I don’t know how they’re going to move the ball running against Tennessee. Knowshon Moreno is questionable against the Titans; meaning Laurence Maroney would start for the Broncos. He has a 2.0 yards per carry average this year. Kyle Orton is averaging 42 attempts per game this year, so the Titans will prepare to shut down the pass game and make Denver run. Personally, I don’t think Maroney will be able to do much.

PACKERS (-14.5) over Lions

It seems like each of the past 3 years the Lions have looked better than they actually are. They seem so much better than Carolina, or Arizona, yet they can’t win a game. They haven’t won a road game since 2007! With Jahvid Best, Calvin Johnson, and Matt Stafford, they seem to have so much more talent on the offensive side of the ball, yet they still can’t win a game. The Packers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, and I don’t see why this will be the week the Lions breakthrough.

Ravens (+1) over STEELERS

Through three weeks, it is clear that the Steelers are the best team in the NFL, and that when Ben Roethlisberger returns, they will be juggernauts of the league. However, this Ravens defense will be the toughest test yet for Steelers QB Dennis Dixon. I mean Byron Leftwich. Wait, sorry Charlie Batch. Whoever is under center will have a tough time putting up points against the Ravens, who have kept their 3 opponents under 17 points. The reason I like the Ravens is that Joe Flacco showed us last week that he isn’t awful, but rather his poor performances in Weeks 1 and 2 was because the Jets and Bengals are two of the top 5 defenses in the league. Bad news for him, the Steelers are number 1. I still think that Flacco will be able to do more than Charlie Batch and win the game.

SAINTS (-13.5) over Panthers

Once the Panthers realized how bad Matt Moore was, they put in Jimmy Clausen thinking things couldn’t go any worse. Well, they were wrong. Clausen turned in one of the worst QB performances I’ve seen since Jake Delhomme was playing for the Panthers. Through 3 quarters, Clausen had dropped 3 snaps on 18 dropbacks, losing 2 of them, while also throwing a pick and getting sacked. Right now, the Panthers are candidates for worst team in the league. To compound upon that, the Saints will be extra-motivated coming off a loss.

Colts (-7.5) over JAGUARS

Joining the Panthers in the conversation for worst team in the league is the Jaguars, who helped persuade most of American that Michael Vick is the second coming of Jesus (I’ll talk more about Vick later). The only mystery that remains with the Jaguars is asking how they beat Denver Week 1? (I’m going to pretend that never happened. Or maybe Denver sucks!) After the Colts shocking Week 1 loss, they’re back in 14-2 form, and they shouldn’t have a problem with the horrible David Garrard. In his last 2 games, he has 1 TD against 5 picks with a passer rating of just over 50.

Texans (-3.5) over RAIDERS

Probably the most interesting line of Week 4. My take on Vegas’ choice to only give the Raiders 3.5: “OK, everyone knows Houston’s never made the playoffs, and now that they lost big to Dallas, maybe that win against the Colts was a fluke, and they almost lost to Washington, so maybe they’re really not that good”. I’m not buying it. Houston lost to a team that HAD to win that football game. If Dallas loses that game, the season is over for them. Plus, that was a much closer game than 27-13. Dallas played like they had nothing to lose, blitzing seemingly every 3rd down, getting to Schaub on 4 of them. I think at 0-3, the Raiders are also one of the worst teams in the league, and Houston should kill them.

Redskins (+6.5) over EAGLES

In my mind, the most interesting game of Week 4. Donovan McNabb nagged Andy Reid to get Michael Vick to come to Philly, and once Vick came, Reid dumped McNabb off in a trade and made Kevin Kolb the new starter. After winning games against Detroit and Jacksonville (the two worst pass defenses in the league last year according to Football Outsiders), Vick is being heralded in Philly and the Eagles fans may be forgetting who brought them to 5 NFC Championships (hint: it’s McNabb). I think that motivation alone will be enough for McNabb to come into Philly and win this game. The fact I think Michael Vick is no good only helps them too. Now for my Michael Vick rant: Vick has played 3 games this year. The first game came against Green Bay, for just the last 2 quarters, when the game didn’t matter. Then he beat the Lions, who are 0-3, and ranked last in the league in pass defense last year. Then he played a very inconsistent game against Jacksonville that is being overlooked because he threw three passes over 42 yards (two for TD’s) that is what everybody saw on SportsCenter. That, and the fact that he’s putting up big fantasy numbers make people think Vick's better than ever. Well, on the Eagles’ first 4 drives, excluding his 61-yard TD pass to DeSean Jackson, Vick was 2-8 for 6 yards, with a sack. He ended up completing just 55% of his passes against an awful Jacksonville team. Before we put him in the same league as Manning, Brees, Brady, Romo, Rodgers, or even Matt Ryan or Matt Schaub, let’s watch him play a good defense. Unfortunately for my argument, he doesn’t play a good defense until Tennessee in Week 7. If he puts up big number then, I will be a believer.

CHARGERS (-8.5) over Cardinals

Now that September’s over, let’s hope the Chargers can regain their playoff form. At 1-2, they’re giving the Chiefs a pretty big head start to win the AFC West. With Arizona, Oakland, St. Louis as their next 3 games, I think the Chargers should be able to get to 4-2, and with the Chiefs having to play BYE, Indianapolis, Houston, I think the Chargers should be caught up by Week 7. For the Cardinals, it’s sad to see Larry Fitzgerald run good routes and then get overthrown by Derek Anderson over and over again, and I hope he either gets traded or the Cards get a new QB so he doesn’t have to be Steve Smith for the rest of his career.

Bears (+4) over GIANTS

How good are the Bears? That’s the question I keep asking myself. Are they a 12-4 team? I think most people would say no. 10-6? 8-8? It’s hard to tell. While beating Green Bay was pretty sweet for Bears fans, they still have some pretty big concerns: One, they mainly won that game by Green Bay’s freak amount of penalties, something the Packers should be able to work out very soon. Two, Jay Cutler still looks really shaky at quarterback. While he did guide them down the field do score the game winning field goal, he basically threw 2 picks on the drive. One was called defensive pass interference, while the other was called incomplete. He got away with those 2, but he continues to make awful decisions in the pocket. I would love to pick against the Bears this week, if not for the fact that they are playing the Giants, who look terrible this year. Eli Manning seemingly has no help, and the Giants don’t even resemble the team that won the Super Bowl three years ago. The only thing preventing the Bears from being 7 point favorites in this one is that uncertainty that goes with their 3-0 record: they lost to the Lions (that was a touchdown), they beat the Cowboys (who were struggling), and they beat the Packers (due to some lucky bounces). Granted, they’ve put themselves in position to win, but their 3-0 looks nowhere as good as Atlanta’s 2-1, for example. Still, the Giants are pretty bad.

DOLPHINS (+1) over Patriots

Brady had a great game against the Bills last week (7-7 on first down, 21-27 overall), but the Bills aren’t exactly the Steelers. Henne played a great game against the Jets Sunday night, but it’s hard to know how much of that was due to Darrelle Revis’ absence. While the Patriots’ defense is so bad this year, I don’t think they can win the division, I’m still holding out hope for Miami. After watching the game against the Jets, I still feel like the Dolphins could have won that game. To keep up with the Jets, the 'Phins are going to need to beat the Patriots just like the Jets did a couple weeks ago. After the Pats almost lost to the Bills last week, I think this line for the Dolphins is a steal.

Upset Pick (underdog to win outright): Bears over Giants

Lock of the Week (with the spread): Texans (-3.5) over Raiders

Last Week: 9-7

Season: 28-20