Michael Hermanson
11-2 last week! That’s right, chew on that for a little while Randy Moss. I’m making my own headlines. As always, home team in CAPS.
Jets (-4) over LIONS
The Lions have been a team I’ve loved backing all year, and with good results: they’re 6-1 against the spread this year, the best record in the league. However, they keep losing, so the casual better is still betting against them. That’s allowed Vegas to keep the lines weak, and Detroit has been ridiculously undervalued. However, after a blowout against the Rams and a win last week against the Redskins, the Lions are now being overvalued. The Lions are still a 2-5 team, and I don’t think they can score against this strong New York defense.
Dolphins (+5) over RAVENS
Speaking of undervalued, the Dolphins are 5-2 against the spread this year, including 4-0 on the road. Well, they’re on the road again this week, and Baltimore beat the Bills by three just two weeks ago. While I still like Joe Flacco and the Ravens, I think Miami could win this game, and they definitely could keep it close. I’ll take the points.
Patriots (-5) over BROWNS
A scary game for me. The Pats are the most overvalued team in the league right now, as they have the best record, but still have some questions on defense. While they are clearly better than the Browns, I think they are due for a letdown game. They still get to play Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit during this season, which should be three wins. They’ve pretty much locked up a playoff spot, and may not mind if they lose a road game to a pretty decent Browns team. However, the Browns are still bad enough that I can’t pick them to actually beat the Pats. I’m going with the Pats, but I’m scared.
Chargers (-3) over TEXANS
I love the Chargers. I wrote a couple weeks ago how ridiculous all their losses have been due to special teams. That’s a problem the Chargers can fix easily. I think they can contend for an AFC title, and right now, I’m picking them to win every week. Starting this week, in Houston.
Bears (-3) over BILLS
I feel so bad for everyone in Toronto who has to watch this, everyone in Chicago who has to watch this, and the people in Buffalo for having to watch the Bills in general. The Bills are gaining value, they are coming off consecutive OT losses (one by a ridiculous “Ice the Kicker” call by the Chiefs. These types of timeouts have to be stopped by Goodell. Once the kicker gets onto the field, there shouldn’t be timeouts allowed any longer. This is much more important than all these fines they’re handing out) and they picked up Shawn Merriman. However, they’re still 0-7, and not very good. As awful as the Bears are, they’re still 4-3, and coming off a bye so I like the Bears. Also, Mike Martz claimed he didn’t know Randy Moss had been put on waivers. What that tells us about Mike Martz: 1) he doesn’t read the newspaper; 2) he doesn’t use a computer; 3) he is not involved whatsoever in making any sorts of decisions with Bears management; 4) he doesn’t have a radio in his car; 5) he doesn’t own a television; 6) he doesn’t have any friends who discuss this sports stuff with him. Okay, the last one was harsh, but this was the biggest piece of sports news the past week. As a human, you must come across it accidentally. As a man who likes sports, you have to know about this. As a man who makes his living in football you have to know this. Absolutely ridiculous.
Cardinals (+9) over VIKINGS
- The Cardinals are terrible.
- The Vikings are a mess after getting Moss, cutting Moss, Brad Childress not being able to control his team and Brett Favre sexting with women.
- Somehow, the Cardinals have more wins as the Vikings
- Yet, the Vikings have more talent (they were Super Bowl favorites! Remember?)
- The Vikings season is over (probably).
- The Cardinals are in a tight division race.
It’s for that last reason I believe the Cardinals can win this game. And if they don’t, they have to lose by less than 9, right? C’mon, please Arizona? Thank you.
Buccaneers (+8.5) over FALCONS
An undefeated road team meets an undefeated home team. So why is one team an 8.5 point favorite? I don’t know. The Falcons’ home wins come against the Cardinals, Bengals, and 49ers. The Bucs away wins come against the Cardinals, Bengals, and Panthers. The only difference is Carolina and San Fran. And Carolina beat San Francisco! While I still think the Falcons are better, I don’t think it’s by that much, and the Bucs think they can beat anyone, which means this should be close, hopefully eight points or less.
Saints (-6.5) over PANTHERS
The Saints appear to have cured their Super Bowl Hangover earlier than expected. A win against the Steelers on national TV was a big step for the Saints, and although last time these two teams met, the Saints won by just two, this is a different team. The Panthers have nothing to play for, and the Saints still are behind in the division. That should make for a Saints win, and I think they can cover.
SEAHAWKS (+7) over Giants
The Seahawks have the best home-field advantage in the NFL, and have shown it, as they are 3-0 at home both overall and against the spread. I think the Giants are good, but not great. Are they really one of the elite teams in the NFC that beat the Texans 34-10, or the team that got obliterated on national TV in Indianapolis? Hard to figure out, so I’m going take the points at home.
Colts (+3) over EAGLES
Peyton Manning has moved into a level that no other player in the NFL is in. No Dallas Clark, you say? No problem. No Bob Sanders, no Robert Mathis, no Joseph Addai? No problem. Manning made no-name Jacob Tamme look like an all-pro and was making me think, “Is Dallas Clark good?” Maybe Manning can make any tight end look good. I mean how many random white receivers with numbers starting with one have we seen catch passes from Manning. He is by far the best quarterback in the league, and after some early skepticism this year, I’m back to backing him week in week out.
RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs
Are the Raiders good? We could say this about so many teams in the league. Teams show up some weeks and then don’t on others. For the Raiders, they are somehow over 30 points the last two weeks, and find themselves in the midst of the AFC West race. This is a pivotal game for the Raiders as it’s against the Chiefs. I’m still not sold that the Chiefs are that great: they “beat” the Bills last week because of a timeout they called. I like the home team that has two blowout wins the last two weeks.
PACKERS (-8.5) over Cowboys
Betting on the Cowboys should be made illegal. Wait, what? All betting is illegal? Really? Well, if betting were legal, they should immediately make it illegal to bet the Cowboys. As one of the most talented teams in the league, the ‘Boys have the potential to beat almost every team in the league. However, as one of the worst teams in the league, they have the potential to lose to every team in the league (See: Garrard v. Phillips, 2010). The players have given up on the season, but I have the feeling they might occasionally try against good teams. Giving this many points scares me so much, but betting against the Cowboys is essentially an admission that your IQ is less than Forrest Gump’s. (What are the odds that if the Cowboys are even remotely good Jerry Jones claims Moss? 100%? Can I go higher? Moss would’ve fit right in with the Cowboys, but alas he goes to a team that will make a good football player, not a good personality. Too bad.)
Steelers (-4.5) over BENGALS
Finally. Finally. Thank you God, thank you Allah, thank you Buddha for letting Carson Palmer play a tough defense. After weeks of throwing dropped picks (T.O’s touchdown catch Sunday was the most notable), Palmer might play a defense that catches them. I think he could throw five picks, two TAINTs, get pulled,and have Marvin Lewis put his little brother in secretly all during the course of this game. I’m very excited to watch this Steelers defense reveal the lie that is Carson Palmer being a good quarterback. I don’t really have to explain this pick much more do I?
Last Week: 11-2
Season: 64-51-2