By Michael Hermanson
3-1 last week, hitting 55% on the year, you better listen. Home team in CAPS
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore
If you’re even a slight sports fan, you’ve already heard that three points have decided the last four meetings between these two teams. And you’ve probably heard it on at least three different ESPN shows. Well, it seems appropriate that the line is exactly three points. It opened at Steelers -3.5, but quickly jumped to 3 as a lot of early money came in on Baltimore. So, is this matchup going to be yet another three point game? All signs point to yes. While BYE weeks normally don’t mean much, the Steelers desperately needed one as star safety Troy Polamalu was healing from an ankle injury.
The strength of Baltimore’s game is also a weakness: they play at a slow, calculated pace that drives some teams nuts. However, they also only have one big time playmaker: Ray Rice. Anquan Boldin is certainly a great receiver, but he doesn’t have that “Desean Jackson Big Play Ability”, a phrase I just coined. If the Ravens were playing the Patriots, a team that thrives on up-tempo high scoring games, they would be in decent shape (or at least as good a shape you can be in while playing New England). However, Pittsburgh plays a similar style. The one true weakness this year for the Steelers is that their O-line has been awful. Not Florida State awful, but not much better. However, Baltimore’s front 4 have had trouble getting to the quarterback. While Suggs, Lewis, and McClain are great linebackers getting to the quarterback, Haloi Ngata has been the only productive defensive lineman for the Ravens (and he has been REALLY productive, that guy is a monster).
Baltimore’s offense has been stale as well. Against the not-so-great Chiefs, it took one half to figure out their offense. Luckily, the Chiefs had only scored 7 points; Pittsburgh won’t be so forgiving. For the Ravens to win, Ray Rice is going to need a tremendous game, even with the Steelers probably concentrating their defensive efforts on the rush. They need to pressure Roethlisberger and do what they do so well: force turnovers. However, I think the Steelers defense will be good enough in this one to stop Baltimore and win the game.
ATLANTA (-2.5) over Green Bay
All of a sudden, people don’t love Matty Ice. I’ve stopped hearing on every SportsCenter episode that he’s 19-1 in his career at home. The public is back on the Aaron Rodgers Bandwagon. Don’t get me wrong, I love Aaron Rodgers, I think he will soon be the top QB in the league, once the likes of Brady and Manning are out of the league. Right now, he’s not quite at that level, but is clearly with Brees and Rivers at the next level. However, are we forgetting the Packers’ entire season?
Nobody is questioning the talent level. They have a terrific defense that has just gotten better as the season has gone on. Aaron Rodgers is great, and their receiving corps is one of the best in the league, if not the best. However, this is the same team that has had untimely injuries all year, the same team that had 18 penalties against the Bears. The same team that outplayed the Bears, Redskins, Dolphins, and Patriots, yet lost all those games from poor game management (3, 3, 3, and 4 point losses respectively). Mike McCarthy is a horrible in-game coach, and he makes more terrible time management decisions than almost anyone in the league. That’s right I’m looking at you Andy Reid. McCarthy led 14-0 with 2 timeouts left and 1:51 on the clock with the Eagles about to line up for a field goal. Rather than burn one of the timeouts to save time for a last minute drive, McCarthy let the clock drip to 1:11. Now leading 14-3, McCarthy still tried to stage a two minute drill. And it was going decently: the Packers moved the ball to their own 37 with 37 seconds left, and took their 2nd timeout. However, after two plays to get to their 43 yard line, McCarthy let the clock run down. I bet he was regretting leaving those potential points on the board when Philly was driving down for the win. But, they got a little lucky.
I found the Packers’ good play not comforting, but rather disconcerting. They COMPLETELY outplayed the Eagles, yet if not for a poor Mike Vick throw, the Eagles could have easily won that game. Add on to that that Ahmad Starks had the greatest game of his career. Do we really think he’s going to have another 20/120 game? I certainly don’t The Falcons went 13-3 at home this year, and ya, they’re really good at home. Giving just 2.5 points, I feel great about taking Atlanta. Is it possible that Green Bay wins this game? Certainly. They have probably more talent than Atlanta. But the combination of Mike McCarthy, home field advantage for Atlanta, and Green Bay’s poor execution this season, I like the Falcons.
CHICAGO (-10) over Seattle
The Seahawks upset over the Saints was deemed to be one of the all-time great playoff upsets, but was it really? At one point in the 3rd quarter, the Saints were starting their fullback as running back. They had gone through all four of their running backs, and they had nobody else on the bench. At the same time, the Saints played far too cautiously to win the game. They were essentially onside kicking every kickoff, but they did it in a manner where they didn’t have a chance to recover the kick. Somehow, Sean Payton was outcoached by Pete Carroll, and by a lot. So do the Seahawks have a chance at making their record 9-9 this week?
There’s good news and bad news: The bad news is that if Seattle can replicate their Week 6 against performance against the Bears, they could host a conference championship game. The good news is that they are so bad that there almost no hope that could happen. Let’s think about what went right for Seattle on Saturday, and just to show how long it is, let’s number it.
1. Resurrect Marshawn Lynch from the dead, and have him go into Beast Mode on one of the best runs in NFL playoff history.
2. Discounting Lynch’s 67-yard run, still have a 3.82 rush average, better than the average for the ENTIRE SEASON!
3. Have Matt Hasselbeck have his highest passer rating since week 5 of 2009.
a. Have the Saints’ corners repeatedly bite on Hasselbeck’s pump fakes.
b. Sack Hasselbeck just twice.
4. Summon a magician to curse Roman Harper into having the worst game of his career.
5. Have Sean Payton be so afraid of Leon Washington that he gives you the ball at midfield on every kickoff by essentially onside kicking the ball every time.
6. Use the crowd to your advantage by having the stadium go crazy in the second half.
7. Use “Nobody Believes in Us!” to your advantage.
Now what all that combined to was a 5 point win. Let’s go number by number: #1&2: Marshawn Lynch making another run like that I think we can all rule out for this week, which leaves the Seattle rushing attack at a 3.82 average. The Bears’ average this year is 3.9. #3: Hasselbeck preyed on the Saints aggressive attack. Greg Williams had the Saints bringing blitzes often and played a lot of man coverage with the Saints trying to get picks. The Bears don’t like to blitz that much and certainly much less than the Saints do. The Bears don’t play aggressive coverage, but rather tackle aggressively. Coach Lovie Smith said, “we’d rather play zone coverage and have everybody look at the ball. That’s the way you take the ball away, when everybody is looking at the quarterback throw the ball.” #4: Will another safety ever have that bad of a game again? 3 of the Seahawks TD’s were targeted at Harper. While Chris Harris and Major Wright aren’t exactly household names, certainly they can do better. #5: The Bears know a thing or two about great returners. Hester > Washington. Negates that Seattle advantage. #6: It’s in Chicago. Negates that Seattle advantage. #7: You beat the Bears last time you played them. Why shouldn’t we think you can do it again? Negates that Seattle advantage.
Even though they did beat the Bears last time, those were 2 different teams. From that game, the Bears went 7-3 while the Seahawks went 4-7. This isn’t a good matchup for the Seahawks, and while a backdoor cover is possible, I think the Bears can use their home field to blow up this game.
NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) over New York Jets
As much as this is a bet on Tom Brady and the seemingly unflappable Patriots, it is also a bet AGAINST Mark Sanchez. Sanchez has had a pretty interesting career so far. The Long Beach native was touted as the top recruit in the nation coming out of high school, but he had to wait his turn at USC, backing up Matt Leinart. In his one season as QB at USC, Sanchez won the Rose Bowl and went 12-1. He was then highly drafted by the Jets and led them to the AFC Championship game his rookie year. Most people thought that he was really holding the ship steady while the defense was winning the games for him. This year; however, people started to praise the “new” Sanchez. He wasn’t throwing picks anymore, and he led the Jets to a 9-2 start including some miraculous wins. The reason for this turnaround season: luck. As of week 14, Sanchez led the league with 13 dropped interceptions. Last week against the Colts Sanchez made some of the worst throws I’ve ever seen in the NFL. He was missing targets by 3 feet, throwing it in the dirt and over their heads. The Jets’ lucky wins caught up with them at the end of the year, as they finished the year 2-3. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Pats were able to get better as the season went on, finishing with eight straight wins. The way the Pats have been winning all year is by scoring early, and forcing teams to play catch up. This works to the Patriots advantage so much because the weakest part of their team is rush defense. The Jets have a punchers chance in this game if they can create long drives with a good game from LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene. The way the Jets will win this is by keeping the Pats off the field and keeping the score low. This game will not be 45-3; Rex Ryan is too good of a coach for that to happen again. Let’s just hope he doesn’t put his foot in his mouth after all the talk this year. Or, would he want that? I don’t know.
Last Week: 3-1
Season: 141-116-3