Date: Sept. 1 @ 12:30 p.m. Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, N.C. All-Time Record: 0-0-0
The Elon University football team is opening their second season under head coach Jason Swepson. The Phoenix finished 5-6 last year, struggling against the upper echelon of the Southern Conference. Save for a Nov. 12 upset victory over Furman University, Elon lost every game against a Southern Conference team that finished with a better record than them in 2011.
The Tar Heels are starting a new era in football under new head coach Larry Fedora. The program has been marred by academic scandal dating back to former head coach Butch Davis’ days in 2009. This year, UNC will not be able to go to a bowl game (joining other historically-good programs in Penn State and Ohio State in that), but have a powerful offensive running game backed by a strong returning offensive line. But Fedora’s spread, no-huddle offense is still relatively new to these players.
Here is a position-by-position look at the matchup we’ll see this Saturday, with analysis by The Pendulum’s sports editor Zachary Horner and assistant sports editor Andrew Wilson. The stats are 2011 numbers.
QUARTERBACK Elon: Sr. Thomas Wilson (279-411, 3,057 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 21 interceptions) UNC: Jr. Bryn Renner (239-350, 3,086 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions)
Zachary: Renner’s numbers are ridiculously solid. But he has done nothing truly spectacular while quarterbacking the Tar Heels, who are not known for their QB history. Renner was one of the most efficient passers in the country, with a 68.3% completion percentage and just 13 picks (granted, that’s more than one per game). Wilson led the Southern Conference in passing yards, but the SoCon is generally a conference that relies on the run. It’s Wilson’s fifth year (he redshirted his freshman year), and he has a filthy set of weapons that will really help him (we’ll tackle those in a bit). He did have a problem with interceptions last year, but he said that was one of the things his team focused on. But he struggled a bit during training camp as the defense really stepped up. EDGE: ELON, simply because Wilson has the weapons.
Andrew: I will say this: Bryn Renner is efficient. He controls the game very well. He’s really a mirror image of the QB he replaced in T.J. Yates. Neither Yates or Renner are nothing special. They come in, get the job done, and go home. There never has been anything flashy about them, and in my opinion, there never will be. Thomas Wilson is entering his second year as the starting quarterback for the Phoenix. While he had his problems with interceptions last season, it was the first year of the Jason Swepson era. Renner is learning a brand new system, and it’s anything but a pro-style system like he ran with interim Coach Everett Withers last year. Larry Fedora brings in a spread offense. Again, anything but pro. Then to top it off, it’s a no-huddle spread offense. Welcome to a whole new world, Bryn Renner and Tar Heel offense. EDGE: ELON
RUNNING BACK Elon: Fr. Tracey Coppedge (first collegiate start) UNC: So. Giovani Bernard (239 carries, 1,253 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns)
Zachary: This one is a no-brainer. The Phoenix is dealing with injuries to top two runners, junior Matt Eastman and University of Akron transfer sophomore Karl Bostick, and freshman B.J. Bennett is out for the year. Therefore Coppedge, who is next on the depth chart, will most likely get the start if neither Eastman nor Bostick are healthy. Compare him to Giovani Bernard, and there’s no shot here. Bernard is the reigning ACC Freshman of the Year and the main cog in UNC’s offense. He will outperform whomever Swepson decides to put behind Thomas Wilson, even if Eastman or Bostick are 120% healthy. EDGE: UNC
Andrew: Giovani Bernard is a stud. As a freshman, he took over the Tar Heels backfield from redshirt senior Ryan Houston and ran wild. He’s a beast, and he’s the best running back in the ACC now with David Wilson gone from Virginia Tech and Lamar Miller from Miami. Anyone the Phoenix lines up at tailback, Bernard has the advantage. EDGE: UNC
RECEIVING Elon: Sr. Aaron Mellette (113 catches, 1,639 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns), Jr. Rasaun Rorie (eight receptions, 100 receiving yards, one touchdown), Sr. Jeremy Peterson (39 catches, 333 receiving yards, two touchdowns); TE Sr. Chris Harris (one catch, five yards) UNC: Sr. Erik Highsmith (51 catches, 726 receiving yards, five touchdowns), Sr. Jheranie Boyd (14 catches, 292 receiving yards), So. Sean Tapley (no receiving statistics); TE So. Eric Ebron (ten catches, 207 receiving yards, one touchdown)
Zachary: The Tar Heels are without Dwight Jones, who had a stellar year last year and was on the way to a high NFL draft pick before he decided to take himself out of that with a lazy Combine performance. The Phoenix has Aaron Mellette, who is on his way to a third-round draft pick this year or higher. Elon’s receivers are generally more experienced and have better numbers than UNC’s. Plus, Elon TE Chris Harris is a monster. That one catch for five yards is not indicative of what coaches are claiming he can do. Elon senior linebacker Blake Thompson told me: “Call him All-American. He has the potential to blow up this season.” EDGE: ELON
Andrew: No Dwight Jones means problems for Renner and the Tar Heels. Erik Highsmith stepped up and made some big catches last year, but can he shoulder the load and fill the gap at No. 1 wideout? I don’t think so. The Tar Heels are going to need someone to step up and run with the No. 1 spot at receiver, and it better happen fast, or it will be a long year in Chapel Hill. On the flip side, Elon’s Aaron Mellette is projected as one of the top receivers in the country in an offense that more than likely will be forced to air it out rather than run the ball just because of the lack of the experience at running back. The supporting cast around Mellette in Rasaun Rorie and Jeremy Peterson should be just enough to keep opposing defenses from surrounding him. EDGE: ELON
OFFENSIVE LINE Elon: So. Austin Sowell, Sr. Kyle Herbert, Jr. Clay Johnson, Sr. Justin Ward, Jr. Gavin Billings UNC: Sr. Jonathan Cooper, Jr. James Hurst, So. Russell Bodine, Sr. Brennan Williams, Sr. Travis Bond
Zachary: UNC’s offensive line returns four starters, two of whom (Cooper and Hurst) were second-team all-ACC picks last season. The line allowed for Bernard to become the first 1,000-yard rusher for the Tar Heels in more than a decade. Sowell and Herbert are the only returning consistent starters for Elon, who has put together an O-line made up of walk-ons (Herbert) and former tight ends (Billings). Nothing against Elon’s O-line, but it just doesn’t match up. EDGE: UNC
Andrew: North Carolina is an ACC program. To survive in the ACC, you need some big guys up front to allow quarterbacks time to find a target and open up holes for running backs. The Heels had one of the better offensive lines in the ACC a year ago, and they return four of the five starters. There’s no contest here. EDGE: UNC
DEFENSIVE LINE Elon: Jr. Jay Brown, Sr. Olufemi Lamikanra, Jr. Tony Thompson, Jr. Jordan Jones UNC: Jr. Kareem Martin, Sr. Sylvester Williams, Jr. Tim Jackson
Zachary: This may be the toughest draw on the day. Tony Thompson has become a monster for the Phoenix. He was named to second-team all-SoCon this preseason. Blake Thompson said, “He’s a monster, really. Watch out. We’ve got a nose guard that’s ready to roll.” Lamikanra brings leadership to the group. For UNC, Williams could have gone to the NFL last year, but decided to stick around for his senior year. Other names are not as significant. EDGE: NONE
Andrew: For the last few years, when someone thinks about North Carolina football, they think about defense. It’s been a force for the Heels that help to disguise the sometimes struggling offense. Williams is a beast for the Tar Heels, but he’s the only one on the line this season that’s worth mentioning with “dominant.” Elon has Tony Thompson. He’s a force for opposing offensive lines to reckon with, but will he and the rest of the D-line be able to get through the UNC O-line? We’ll see. EDGE: UNC (But just for now. Elon’s D-line isn’t something to take lightly in any case.)
LINEBACKER
Elon: So. Odell Benton, So. Jonathan Spain, Sr. Blake Thompson UNC: Sr. Kevin Reddick, So. Travis Hughes, So. Tommy Heffernan, “Bandit” Sr. Dion Guy
Zachary: Blake Thompson thinks the combination of Benton-Spain-Thompson is “the fastest linebacking corps in the nation.” They just may well be. Spain is the perfect middle linebacker: speed, strength and a bit of tenacity. He’s not Ray Lewis by any means. But Blake Thompson may be. Benton comes into a full starting role after playing eight games last year as a true freshmen. UNC’s linebackers are a little inexperienced, with Reddick being the leader as a senior. The “bandit” position is a roaming D-lineman/linebacker, by the way. Based on the experience factor, and Thompson’s leadership from the linebacker position, I give the edge to the Phoenix. EDGE: ELON
Andrew: Experience goes up against new position titles and inexperience. The combination of the three Elon linebackers is fast. Very fast. Two-thirds of Elon’s linebackers are sophomores, but there’s experience, as Benton played eight games as a freshman. Blake Thompson leads these two sophomores on a mission this year, and my guess is the three will mesh very well over the next couple months. North Carolina is always known for their defense, as I mentioned above. As Zach said, Reddick is the leader at linebacker for the Heels, and they’re using the new “bandit” role this year. EDGE: ELON (Just based on experience. This should be a battle through and through.)
SECONDARY Elon: CB Sr. David Wood, So. Akheem Langham; S Jr. Chandler Wrightenberry, So. Miles Williams UNC: CB So. Tim Scott, Jr. Jabari Price; S Jr. Tre Boston, R-Fr. Sam Smiley
Zachary: UNC’s secondary is generally inexperienced. Boston is the best one of this group, but I don’t see them holding up to Elon’s talented receivers. Meanwhile, all four players in Elon’s secondary have seen significant playing time. Plus, David Wood played baseball, he’s got to have good hands. EDGE: ELON
Andrew: Experience is the name of the game here. Elon has a lot of it. North Carolina, not so much. All four in Elon’s secondary played in every game last year, with Wrightenberry starting all 11 games. The Heels do have Tre Boston, who can play both corner and safety if needed, and Tim Scott comes into year two at Carolina having played in all 13 games a true freshman. Price is coming off a hand injury and Smiley is a redshirt freshman seeing his first action this season. EDGE: Elon (There’s a reason it’s not bold. It’s because this could be a toss up, but I think Elon takes the slight edge. And when I say slight, I mean ever so slightly. It’s very close to a toss up.)
KICKER/PUNTER Elon: Sr. Adam Shreiner/Jr. Kenton Beal UNC: Sr. Casey Barth/So. Tommy Hibbard
Andrew: Casey Barth’s older brother, Connor, is the kicker for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Casey was on the 2011 Lou Groza Award watch list before a groin injury derailed any hopes for winning the award. Coming off the injury, he was left off the 2012 edition of the list, but he’s still one of the better kickers in the country as long as he’s healthy. Elon’s Adam Shreiner has improved immensely over his years at Elon. Now as a senior, he’s the special teams captain. They’re both good place kickers, and with Barth having been on the Groza award watch list, I would normally go with UNC, but coming off injury, there are still a couple questions as to whether he’s got it back or not, which leaves this to the punters. Elon’s Kenton Beal and North Carolina’s Tommy Hibbard are also pretty even. Both can down the ball inside the 20 yard line when needed, and both have very similar average distances per punt with Beal at 38.4 and Hibbard at 39.2. EDGE: NONE
Zachary: Andrew explained it pretty well. Considering he’s a Barth brother, I’m going to give Casey an edge over Shreiner, despite Shreiner’s improvement (7-of-15 on FGs in 2010, 10-of-15 in 2011) over the last couple years. You can’t be a slouch kicker in any BCS conference, or else you get torn apart (i.e. Boise State kicker in the last couple years). Punters seem about the same, though Beal has shown a great improvement over last year. The question: if it comes down to three seconds left, and you have to pick between Casey Barth and Adam Shreiner. I’m taking Barth, even if he’s been injured. EDGE: UNC
Summary
Zachary: There are two key match-ups in this game. Giovani Bernard versus the Elon front seven, and the Elon passing-receiving corps versus the UNC secondary. I predict those to split, with Bernard running all over a still-effective Elon defense that has significantly improved, while the Wilson-Mellette combination will exploit the weak, inexperienced UNC pass defenders. If one team can win the other match-up, I say they walk away with the win here. Then again, it’s Elon playing UNC, an FCS team facing an FBS team. That factor may be just too much to overwhelm the Phoenix. Then again, second year in the system for Elon versus first year in the system, a rather complicated system mind you, for UNC. So many factors. Plus, in the bottom of my heart, I truly would love to see the Phoenix walk out of Kenan Stadium with a huge victory over a local FBS school. Will it happen? Yes. ELON wins 28-27. It’s a close one. I just feel like it lines up this year. This is a once-in-a-lifetime victory. This sure isn’t Appalachian State over Michigan, but for Elon, a middling SoCon program, it’s huge. If it happens, we’ll talk about how it affects this season and beyond. If it doesn't, well, then, we're right back to where we started a year ago, with good experience and an 0-1 record to start the season, just like eight of the last ten seasons.
Andrew: Let’ face it. North Carolina is an FBS program playing in the ACC. Elon is an FCS team that finished 5-6 last year. Granted it was year one for Jason Swepson and Thomas Wilson, it didn’t instill boiling confidence for this year. There is definite lack of depth at running back for the Phoenix, which will be a problem all year if the injury bug continues to plague the Elon backfield. On the other hand, North Carolina is still recovering from scandal. They’re not eligible for the postseason this year. It’s a transition period for the program with Larry Fedora taking over. The new offense will be effective for the Tar Heels, but not this week. The first go-round in this offense will be a learning experience that probably wont be pretty. There’s going to be mistakes, and there are going to be costly plays that give Elon hope in the game. The North Carolina defense will find a way to do what it’s known for: covering up the sometimes struggling offense. Bold prediction here in saying Giovani Bernard can start his Heisman run this week. He’s got the talent, and if not this year, I still think he can be in the conversation one day, if not end up in New York at season’s end in the years to come. It’s going to take more then Thomas Wilson and Aaron Mellette to produce the offense needed in this game for the Phoenix. If Wilson can consistently connect with other targets like Rorie and Peterson, and even find the tight ends over the middle, it will be a different story. But if Elon tries to make it the Wilson/Mellette show, North Carolina will roll. So, here it is. My prediction. I see a close game. This is not your typical 62-3 week one score. Elon will compete just like they did through three quarters against Vanderbilt a year ago. North Carolina will make enough mistakes in the no-huddle spread offense that will keep Elon in the game. Three and outs will be key for the defense on Saturday. Get off the field before Carolina can get east and west in a hurry. If that doesn’t happen and Wilson can’t find targets other than Mellette, its going to be a long day. Oh and Wilson needs to stay away from the targets in Tar Heel blue too. If he can’t do that, it is going to be an even longer day for the maroon and gold. Elon stays in this one and competes all four quarters, but this is North Carolina. New coach or not, they’re going to find a way to pull this one out. I’m not picking the NCAA Basketball Tournament here. Picking upsets are not the goal. NORTH CAROLINA wins 35-28