So after a week off, I’m back making my prediction for this weekend’s Elon football game.
The Phoenix is taking on No. 11 Georgia Southern, who packs a powerful triple-option rushing attack which features two of the top rushers in the entire Southern Conference. But the Eagles are playing their first game after a 23-21 loss to The Citadel when redshirt-freshman kicker Ryan Nowicki missed a 31-yard field goal wide left with time expiring.
Elon is on a two-game winning streak in which they’ve put up 82 points and 800 yards of total offense.
Here are my keys to the game for each team.
Three Keys for Elon
1. Continue the strong passing game: Senior quarterback Thomas Wilson has been on fire after struggling against the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He’s completed 31-of-43 passes for 439 yards and six touchdowns (with no interceptions) in the last two games. Yes, against lesser talent, but one can get a glimpse of what Wilson has the capability to do.
He’ll need to continue that success and keep hitting senior wideout Aaron Mellette, who is finding his stride after just two catches for nine yards against the Tar Heels. The confidence the Phoenix are showing is absolutely necessary in starting this stretch against top Southern Conference opponents.
2. Stop what you know is coming: The triple-option attack is the way Georgia Southern works. It’s pretty simple. The Eagles have a quarterback and a running back who can run the ball effectively. Sophomore starting quarterback Ezayi Youyoute has thrown just 13 passes all season. You know the run’s coming, you’ve prepared for it.
"Everybody has to do their job," Elon sophomore linebacker Odell Benton told me. "Everybody has to be disciplined. Really, it just comes down to being disciplined, knowing your job and not relaxing at any point in the game."
3. Don’t get scurred: Georgia Southern is the No. 11 team in the country for a reason. They were FCS semifinalists last year. Don’t let that intimidate you. Both sides of the ball for the Phoenix are more experienced this season, but that doesn’t remove the “No. 11” in front of “Georgia Southern.”
Three Keys for Georgia Southern
1. Bounce back from loss to The Citadel: The Eagles have a young starter at quarterback (Youyoute) and at running back (Dominique Swope). Both are talented, but they’re both sophomores. How will they lead the Eagles’ offense in a bounce-back effort after a surprising loss? The Bulldogs proved it was no fluke by upsetting Appalachian State the following weekend. How does this team come back from an upset followed by an early bye week?
Simply by doing what they do best: run the ball. Youyoute and Swope are not slouches by any means. They may have some difficulty against Elon's much-improved front seven, but count on both to get 100-plus yards on the ground.
2. Throw the ball well (when you do): The Phoenix secondary has shown a penchant for ball-hawking so far this season, with four interceptions and 12 pass breakups. Youyoute is 5-of-13 for 57 yards. He won’t throw it often. We know the running game will be successful. When Youyoute throws the ball, it needs to be on the money, or else the Eagles may find themselves in trouble. If they throw the ball.
3. Get to Thomas Wilson: Wilson has thrown just two interceptions in three games so far this season, both against North Carolina. He had five through the same amount of time in 2011. He’s cut down on it mostly because offensive line protection has been stellar since the UNC debacle. If the Eagles are able to get through to Wilson and disrupt him, Georgia Southern’s secondary may be catching the ball more often than Elon wants them to.
Georgia Southern senior defensive end Brent Russell has a penchant for making things difficult for opponents; that's why he's one of the top defensive players in the SoCon. Make it hard for Wilson to get any throw off. He struggled against North Carolina because guys like Sylvester Williams were in his face all day. If Russell can do that, Elon's passing game will probably look like it did in Kenan Stadium Sept. 1.
The Prediction
For Elon, there's more at stake here than just one win.
"These three games right here are going to decide where we're going to stand at the end of the season," Benton said.
"We've got to start off with a win," senior defensive lineman Jay Brown said. "Start with a win, put us in the driver's seat, so we're ready to go."
This game is followed up by match-ups with Wofford College at home then Appalachian State University on the road. Three of the top four teams in the conference. It's crucial to start off with a win.
But I'm afraid the Phoenix will fall short. I'm sure that Georgia Southern wins 30-20. The triple-option attack will be a struggle for Elon, especially as the Eagles come off a bye week.
But The Citadel defeated the Eagles in a surprise. You never know. And that's the beauty of the Southern Conference.