Instead of trying to make a half-witty Monty Python reference like I’ve tried to do in my last couple of Elon University football team analyses, I’m simply going to tell the honest truth.
I don’t know what to think of this team.
On some days, we see a team that just cannot get anything going (the Sept. 1 62-0 loss to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill). On some days, we see a team that can move the ball at will through the air (against North Carolina Central University and West Virginia State University). On some days, we see a team that has some offense, but can’t stop anything on defense in the long run (at home against Wofford College and a crucial loss to Appalachian State University). And on some days, we see a team that has potential for pulling off the upset, but cannot finish (falling to Georgia Southern University 26-23).
There is not a consistent statement about Elon except for this: the team's good, just can’t finish it.
Players spoke of last year’s 28-24 Nov. 19 loss to Appalachian State as a motivation to finish, as the Phoenix lost a 21-0 first quarter lead on the way to finishing head coach Jason Swepson’s inaugural season as the head honcho 5-6.
Now, twice in three weeks, Elon has shown it cannot do that. The Phoenix earned a hard-fought 13-7 lead going into halftime at then-No. 11 Georgia Southern, then lost 26-23 in heart-breaking fashion. And then, Appalachian State, when Elon had a 17-14 lead early in the third quarter and couldn’t hold it.
In the usual style of threes that I tend to like, I’ll discuss three things that have gone right and three things that have gone wrong so far this season for the Elon Phoenix football team.
Three Things That Have Gone Right
1. Aaron Mellette turned it around: I must admit, I was concerned after the senior wide receiverhad just two catches for nine yards against North Carolina. Then a little bit less after the win against NC Central (four catches for 40 yards and a score).
But there has been no reason for worry since. In the last four games, Mellette has 44 catches for 621 yards and nine touchdowns. That last number is key, as it has allowed the Phoenix to stay in games against Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. He has out-distanced himself from the other receivers. Sophomore Kierre Brown, junior Rasuan Rorie, senior tight end Chris Harris and redshirt-freshman Ricky Brown each have one touchdown catch.
He’s taking his senior season to really boost himself up for the NFL Draft along with attempting to help Elon to any semblance of postseason they can. Mellette told me he’s not taking this bye week off, but getting in the weight room and working out, prepping for the rest of the SoCon season.
Thank goodness for Elon. It’ll need all it can get out of Aaron Mellette for the rest of the season.
2. Elon won games it should have won: The Phoenix almost dropped a game to NC Central last year, needing a late Thomas Wilson-to-Christian Dennis touchdown pass to scrape out a win. This year, it was a rout. Same against West Virginia State.
It may be kind of pointless to say this, but unlike Florida State University against North Carolina State University Oct. 7, Elon has won the games they should have won. The routs have been the only victories the Phoenix has managed to scrounge up this year, but both games were blowouts, no competition from their opponents, very few mistakes.
There’s something to be said for playing well in key games (I’ll talk about that later). But there’s also something key in winning games you should win. And Elon has done that in a smashing fashion.
3. The lacking-depth O-line hasn’t hurt that much: One of the greatest concerns Swepson had before the season begun was the lack of depth at the offensive line. With only three tackles (sophomore Austin Sowell, junior Gavin Billings and true freshman Jacob Ingle) ready to play in Swepson’s view, there was going to be an issue if someone got hurt.
Well, Billings got hurt at Georgia Southern. Instead of slotting Ingle in, Swepson moved senior Justin Ward over to tackle and put junior Dennis Wagner in at guard. And it’s worked out. For the most part, Thomas Wilson has stayed protected, especially against Appalachian State. I was honestly surprised. But hey, if Wilson is to keep his interception number (I’ll touch on that in a bit) down, that protection is going to have to continue.
There has not been much of a running game, but neither sophomore Karl Bostick nor true freshman Tracey Coppedge have truly gone off in a game. I would chalk that up to poor play-calling in that aspect of the offense, as most running plays see those two running right up the middle, where often there’s no room simply because that’s where everybody is.
Three Things That Have Gone Wrong
1. Thomas Wilson throwing interceptions in key games: Great care has been taken by Thomas Wilson to cut down on his infamous 2011 stat: 21 interceptions, second-most in the FCS. And the numbers show a difference; he’s thrown seven picks in six games.
But he’s chosen to throw them in the worst games. He had two against Georgia Southern and three against Appalachian State, two games the Phoenix would have arguably won if the picks had not been thrown. Two of the INTs against App State were thrown in the red zone when Elon had opportunities for key touchdowns.
Don’t care who you’re playing against, you MUST not make poor decisions in big games. Granted, the second pick against the Eagles bounced off a receiver’s hands. But still. And I’m not even counting the two Wilson threw against North Carolina. You’ve got to make good throws in key games. Especially the SoCon, where offenses such as the Mountaineers’ will jump all over your turnovers.
2. Injuries all over:The players that have been hurt this year have severely affected Elon. Junior running back Matt Eastman has missed the entire season. Senior tight end Chris Harris missed two games. Senior defensive lineman Brandon Brandt will miss the rest of the season, as will freshman linebacker Jon Silas. Billings has missed the last two games with a leg injury. Freshman defensive lineman Chris Jones missed the Wofford game. Others such as junior offensive lineman Clay Johnson, senior offensive lineman Kyle Herbert, junior cornerback Akeem Langham, redshirt freshman defensive lineman Evan Kendrick and even Wilson have been hurt during games and have returned.
This is something Swepson cannot control. He acknowledges that and I understand that. But the complaint has been there’s no depth. Well, who’s to blame for that? Is it the players? Is it the coaches? Who knows? In a world of sports where blame “must” be assigned, where’s the blame here? There’s a reason somewhere.
3. This team cannot finish: This is probably the biggest issue with the Phoenix this season. We saw it against Georgia Southern and Appalachian State in that Elon cannot finish an important game with a lead. Yeah, they can rout NC Central and West Virginia State, but there was nothing it could do against the Eagles and the Mountaineers to hold onto the lead it had.
There could be a million reasons why. The lack of depth. The schedule. The talent. The opponents. The missed tackles. Giving up big plays. The turnovers in the red zone. The missed kicks (only three this year, but still). The officials (something Swepson has continued to complain about).
Whatever you want to pin the 2-4 record the Phoenix holds on, unfortunately for Elon, there are many things you could point to. But in the end, the inability to finish has killed the Phoenix in key games. It’s something the team wanted to do this year, especially after letting last year’s matchup with Appalachian State slip away after getting off to a three-score lead.
If you want a most valuable player for this team, it’s obviously Aaron Mellette. He himself has kept the Phoenix in games they had no business being in and continues to bring attention to the Elon program. CBSSports.com currently slots him as a fourth or fifth round draft pick, and he will probably stay there unless he shows the world he’s worth a higher pick at the NFL Combine in the spring or leads the Phoenix to a surprising playoff berth.
And yes, it’s surprising now if Elon makes the playoff. The promise this team showed against Georgia Southern seems gone in my mind. The Phoenix would most assuredly have to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs. One loss, and we’re looking at a hopeful 6-5. Not where this team wants to be.