Let me admit up front that trying to predict what will happen in the MLB Playoffs is probably not worth the trouble. Any numbers geek (including myself) will tell you that weird things happen in small sample sizes. And with the World Series winner playing a maximum of 20 possible games, the MLB playoffs are the very definition of a small sample size.

For example, the Houston Astros, who honestly might be worse than some AAA teams, had a five game winning streak earlier this year, even though they’re (relatively) awful at baseball. If you put the Astros in the playoffs, they’d have a legitimate shot to win the World Series, simply because 20 games isn’t very many and isn’t enough to reflect a team’s true talent level.

Still, just because playoff predictions will probably be wrong doesn’t mean people shouldn’t make them anyway, right? Here, listed in order, are the teams most likely to be hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy come late October.

  1.  Texas Rangers - As of this writing, the Rangers are the surest bet of any American League team to even make the playoffs, which is why they’re No. 1. Their starting pitching isn’t great, but everything else is, and once the calendar flips to October, manager Ron Washington can feel free to ride bullpen studs Alexi Ogando, Mike Adams and Joe Nathan into the ground. At least figuratively speaking.
  2. Cincinnati Reds - Like the Rangers, the Reds feature an excellent bullpen backing up unspectacular starting pitching, although Johnny Cueto has turned a corner and might be a true No. 1 starter, if you believe those exist. Unfortunately, the Reds don’t have the same firepower that the Rangers do on offense. But Joey Votto’s recent return makes the Reds lineup significantly more dangerous, and that makes the Reds a major threat to win it all.

  3. Washington Nationals - They’d be No. 2 if their best player hadn’t been inexplicably shut down for the year (and no, “Jordan Zimmermann followed the same program” does not count as a good explanation). Forbidding a pitcher as good as Stephen Strasburg from playing in the postseason is just absurd. I hope general manager Mike Rizzo has fun watching Edwin Jackson start Game 7 of the NLCS with Strasburg unavailable.

  4. Atlanta Braves - Like the Braves as a team, Kris Medlen and Michael Bourn are two relatively under appreciated players that are both way better than you might think they are. (that’s all we get for the Braves?)
  5. Tampa Bay Rays - I’ll probably regret this pick, because at least four teams - the Giants, Athletics, White Sox and Yankees - are more likely to make the playoffs than the Rays, and it turns out that getting to the playoffs is a key step to winning the World Series. But no team is going to trot out a playoff rotation better than David Price, James Shields, Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson, and that makes the Rays a strong contender if they can find their way into the postseason for the third straight year.