After what began as a close gubernatorial race, now Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson does not seem like he has a high chance of winning, Carrie Eaves, political science professor, said.
The North Carolina gubernatorial race has been shaken by comments from Robinson that were recently reported by CNN and were made over a decade ago on the adult website “Nude Africa.”
The gubernatorial race between Robinson and Democrat nominee Josh Stein has opened up with a recent Elon poll conducted between Sept. 4 to 13 finding Stein up by 14 points — before the comments came to light Sept. 19.
“We don’t have any polling data since the allegations from CNN came out,” Eaves said. “It seems like he will not win the election. Obviously, that’s not a guarantee.”
These comments include Robinson expressing support for reinstituting slavery, calling himself a “Black Nazi,” a “perv” and saying he enjoys transgender pornography.
Robinson has a history of controversial statements concerning abortion rights and the LGBTQ+ community. When asked about his stance on abortion at a campaign event in Troy, North Carolina, in early September, Robinson said he supported a full abortion ban in the state.
While the governor race has become less competitive based on polling data, the presidential race in North Carolina has not, as the recent Elon poll had Democratic nominee Kamala Harris up by one point.
Eaves said she believes the Democratic Party will try and tie Trump and Robinson together but is unsure if the attempts will be successful.
“I certainly don’t think that Trump is going to drop 10 or 11 points in North Carolina as a result, but I think that we’ll see that be more of a focus of the campaign,” Eaves said.
Since the CNN report came out Trump, and other members of the GOP, have distanced themselves from Robinson. In a recent campaign stop on Sept. 21 in Wilmington, Trump did not invite or mention Robinson at all.
“People that are really paying attention might know that some other governor disassociated themselves with Robinson,” Eaves said. “But at this point, those voters who are really paying attention have already made up their minds.”
The impact of this controversy on the presidential election, according to Eaves, may be tiny, but North Carolina elections have previously been won by small margins. Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by 75,000 votes but Democrat Roy Cooper was reelected governor and won by 248,185 votes and in 2016, Cooper was elected with a margin of 10,263 votes.
Democratic gubernatorial candidates for North Carolina have been elected four out of five times in the past thirty-one years, but North Carolina has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since former President Barack Obama in 2008. Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020.
North Carolina state legislature currently has a Republican supermajority which has used its power to override vetoes made by Cooper on multiple different issues, including abortion.
The president of Elon’s chapter of College Democrats, senior Ryan Elad, said he believes students on campus are aware of this story due to the bizarre nature of the story and because of the amount of media coverage surrounding the comments.
Representatives from College Republicans did not respond to Elon News Network’s request for comment.
As college students in North Carolina prepare for election day, Elad said he believes staying educated and aware is important to make a decision for who to vote for.
“I think having a complete understanding of the actual landscape of the policies that the candidates support, of the histories that they have, of the things they talk about wanting to do, those are the things you want to know,” Elad said.